Second-Order Ambiguity in Very Low Probability Risks: Food Safety Valuation

Food consumption involves inherently risky decisions with uncertain probabilities. This study examines how second-order ambiguity, or uncertainty over probabilities, affects food safety decisions. We conduct a food safety survey wherein subjects face both unambiguous and ambiguous situations, each with the same expected value. Respondents show a preference for unambiguous situations and state a willingness to pay to avoid ambiguityambiguity, ambiguity avoidance, expected utility theory, food safety, low probability events, risk, second-order probabilities, uncertainty, Risk and Uncertainty,

Likelihood informed dimension reduction for inverse problems in remote sensing of atmospheric constituent profiles

We use likelihood informed dimension reduction (LIS) (T. Cui et al. 2014) for inverting vertical profile information of atmospheric methane from ground based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) measurements at Sodankyl\"a, Northern Finland. The measurements belong to the word wide TCCON network for greenhouse gas measurements and, in addition to providing accurate greenhouse gas measurements, they are important for validating satellite observations. LIS allows construction of an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm that explores only a reduced dimensional space but still produces a good approximation of the original full dimensional Bayesian posterior distribution. This in effect makes the statistical estimation problem independent of the discretization of the inverse problem. In addition, we compare LIS to a dimension reduction method based on prior covariance matrix truncation used earlier (S. Tukiainen et al. 2016)

Identification of ColR binding consensus and prediction of regulon of ColRS two-component system

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Conserved two-component system ColRS of <it>Pseudomonas </it>genus has been implicated in several unrelated phenotypes. For instance, deficiency of <it>P. putida </it>ColRS system results in lowered phenol tolerance, hindrance of transposition of Tn<it>4652 </it>and lysis of a subpopulation of glucose-grown bacteria. In order to discover molecular mechanisms behind these phenotypes, we focused here on identification of downstream components of ColRS signal transduction pathway.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>First, highly similar ColR binding sites were mapped upstream of outer membrane protein-encoding <it>oprQ </it>and a putative methyltransferase-encoding PP0903. These two ColR binding sequences were used as an input in computational genome-wide screening for new potential ColR recognition boxes upstream of different genes in <it>P. putida</it>. Biological relevance of a set of <it>in silico </it>predicted ColR-binding sites was analysed <it>in vivo </it>by studying the effect of ColR on transcription from promoters carrying these sites. This analysis disclosed seven novel genes of which six were positively and one negatively regulated by ColR. Interestingly, all promoters tested responded more significantly to the over-expression than to the absence of ColR suggesting that either ColR is limiting or ColS-activating signal is low under the conditions applied. The binding sites of ColR in the promoters analysed were validated by gel mobility shift and/or DNase I footprinting assays. ColR binding consensus was defined according to seven ColR binding motifs mapped by DNase I protection assay and this consensus was used to predict minimal regulon of ColRS system.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Combined usage of experimental and computational approach enabled us to define the binding consensus for response regulator ColR and to discover several new ColR-regulated genes. For instance, genes of outer membrane lipid A 3-O-deacylase PagL and cytoplasmic membrane diacylglycerol kinase DgkA are the members of ColR regulon. Furthermore, over 40 genes were predicted to be putatively controlled by ColRS two-component system in <it>P. putida</it>. It is notable that many of ColR-regulated genes encode membrane-related products thus confirming the previously proposed role of ColRS system in regulation of membrane functionality.</p

The water vapour distribution in the Arctic lowermost stratosphere during the LAUTLOS campaign and related transport processes including stratosphere-troposphere exchange

International audienceBalloon-borne water vapour measurements during January and February 2004, which were obtained as part of the LAUTLOS campaign at Sodankylä, Finland, 67° N, were used to analyse the water vapour distribution in the wintertime Arctic lowermost stratosphere. A 2.5 km thick layer (or 30 K in the potential temperature scale) above the tropopause is characterized by a significant water vapour variability on a synoptic timescale with values between stratospheric and tropospheric, which is in good agreement with previously reported measurements. A cross-correlation analysis of ozone and water vapour confirms that this layer contains a mixture of stratospheric and tropospheric air masses. Some of the flights sampled laminae of enhanced water vapour above the tropopause. Meteorological analyses and backward trajectory calculations show that these features were related to filaments that had developed along the flanks of cut-off anticyclones, which had been active at this time over the Northern Atlantic. The role of the filaments was however not to transport water vapour from the troposphere to the stratosphere but rather to transport it within the stratosphere away from regions where intensive two-way stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) was identified. Intensive STE occurred around cut-off anticyclones in regions of strong winds, where calculations suggest the presence of clear-air turbulence (CAT). Evidences that CAT contributes to the troposphere-to-stratosphere transport (TST) are presented. However, statistically, relation between TST and CAT during the studied period is weak

Matching radiative transfer models and radiosonde data from the EPS/Metop Sodankylä campaign to IASI measurements

Radiances observed from IASI are compared to calculated ones. Calculated radiances are obtained using several radiative transfer models (OSS, LBLRTM v11.3 and v11.6) on best estimates of the atmospheric state vectors. The atmospheric state vectors are derived from cryogenic frost point hygrometer and humidity dry bias corrected RS92 measurements flown on sondes launched 1 h and 5 min before IASI overpass time. The temperature and humidity best estimate profiles are obtained by interpolating or extrapolating these measurements to IASI overpass time. The IASI observed and calculated radiances match to within one sigma IASI instrument noise in the spectral region where water vapour is a strong absorber (wavenumber, ν, in the range of 1500 ≤ ν ≤ 1570 and 1615 ≤ ν ≤ 1800 cm−1)

An advanced computational intelligent framework to predict shear sonic velocity with application to mechanical rock classification

Shear sonic wave velocity (Vs) has a wide variety of implications, from reservoir management and development to geomechanical and geophysical studies. In the current study, two approaches were adopted to predict shear sonic wave velocities (Vs) from several petrophysical well logs, including gamma ray (GR), density (RHOB), neutron (NPHI), and compressional sonic wave velocity (Vp). For this purpose, five intelligent models of random forest (RF), extra tree (ET), Gaussian process regression (GPR), and the integration of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) with differential evolution (DE) and imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) optimizers were implemented. In the first approach, the target was estimated based only on Vp, and the second scenario predicted Vs from the integration of Vp, GR, RHOB, and NPHI inputs. In each scenario, 8061 data points belonging to an oilfield located in the southwest of Iran were investigated. The ET model showed a lower average absolute percent relative error (AAPRE) compared to other models for both approaches. Considering the first approach in which the Vp was the only input, the obtained AAPRE values for RF, ET, GPR, ANFIS + DE, and ANFIS + ICA models are 1.54%, 1.34%, 1.54%, 1.56%, and 1.57%, respectively. In the second scenario, the achieved AAPRE values for RF, ET, GPR, ANFIS + DE, and ANFIS + ICA models are 1.25%, 1.03%, 1.16%, 1.63%, and 1.49%, respectively. The Williams plot proved the validity of both one-input and four-inputs ET model. Regarding the ET model constructed based on only one variable,Williams plot interestingly showed that all 8061 data points are valid data. Also, the outcome of the Leverage approach for the ET model designed with four inputs highlighted that there are only 240 "out of leverage" data sets. In addition, only 169 data are suspected. Also, the sensitivity analysis results typified that the Vp has a higher effect on the target parameter (Vs) than other implemented inputs. Overall, the second scenario demonstrated more satisfactory Vs predictions due to the lower obtained errors of its developed models. Finally, the two ET models with the linear regression model, which is of high interest to the industry, were applied to diagnose candidate layers along the formation for hydraulic fracturing. While the linear regression model fails to accurately trace variations of rock properties, the intelligent models successfully detect brittle intervals consistent with field measurements

The water vapour distribution in the Arctic lowermost stratosphere during LAUTLOS campaign and related transport processes including stratosphere-troposphere exchange

International audienceBalloon-borne water vapour measurements during January and February 2004, which were obtained as part of the LAUTLOS campaign at Sodankylä, Finland, 67° N, were used to analyse the water vapour distribution in the wintertime Arctic lowermost stratosphere. A 2.5 km thick layer (or 30 K in the potential temperature scale) above the local tropopause is characterized by a significant water vapour variability on a synoptic timescale with values between stratospheric and tropospheric, which is in good agreement with previously reported measurements. A cross-correlation analysis of ozone and water vapour confirms that this layer contains a mixture of stratospheric and tropospheric air masses. Some of the flights sampled laminae of enhanced water vapour above the tropopause. Meteorological analyses and backward trajectory calculations show that these features are related to filaments that had developed along the flanks of cut-off anticyclones, which had been active at this time over the Northern Atlantic. Cross-tropopause mass fluxes calculated following the Wei method are used to identify regions and processes that are important for stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) in high-latitudes. Intensive STE occurs around cut-off anticyclones in regions of strong winds, where calculations suggest the presence of developed clear-air turbulence. The decay of the filaments is also shown to be important for STE

KINEMATIC ANALYSIS OF MEN BOBSLED PUSH STARTS

The purpose of this study was to provide a descriptive analysis of selected kinematic variables associated with the push start for brakemen in the two-man bobsled. Eleven male bobsledders served as subjects for this study. The subjects were videotaped at 120 Hz during competition at the Lake Placid, NY bobsled track as they were competing for positions on the men’s 2004 National Bobsled Team. Selected groups of variables measured at specific events in this study included step length, frequency, and foot contact time; COM velocity; and trunk, knee, and elbow angles. A relationship of 0.63 was determined between start time and finish time; an exploratory correlational analysis between start time and COM velocity at 2nd step take-off (TO) was -0.63. Start time is of critical importance in determining final race time

Linking uncertainty in simulated Arctic ozone loss to uncertainties in modelled tropical stratospheric water vapour

Stratospheric water vapour influences the chemical ozone loss in the polar stratosphere via control of the polar stratospheric cloud formation. The amount of water vapour entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause differs substantially between simulations from chemistry–climate models (CCMs). This is because the present-day models, e.g. CCMs, have difficulties in capturing the whole complexity of processes that control the water transport across the tropopause. As a result there are large differences in the stratospheric water vapour between the models.In this study we investigate the sensitivity of simulated Arctic ozone loss to the simulated amount of water vapour that enters the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause. We used a chemical transport model, FinROSE-CTM, forced by ERA-Interim meteorology. The water vapour concentration in the tropical tropopause was varied between 0.5 and 1.6 times the concentration in ERA-Interim, which is similar to the range seen in chemistry–climate models. The water vapour changes in the tropical tropopause led to about 1.5&thinsp;ppmv less and 2&thinsp;ppmv more water vapour in the Arctic polar vortex compared to the ERA-Interim, respectively. The change induced in the water vapour concentration in the tropical tropopause region was seen as a nearly one-to-one change in the Arctic polar vortex.We found that the impact of water vapour changes on ozone loss in the Arctic polar vortex depends on the meteorological conditions. The strongest effect was in intermediately cold stratospheric winters, such as the winter of 2013/2014, when added water vapour resulted in 2&thinsp;%–7&thinsp;% more ozone loss due to the additional formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and associated chlorine activation on their surface, leading to ozone loss. The effect was less pronounced in cold winters such as the 2010/2011 winter because cold conditions persisted long enough for a nearly complete chlorine activation, even in simulations with prescribed stratospheric water vapour amount corresponding to the observed values. In this case addition of water vapour to the stratosphere led to increased areas of ICE PSCs but it did not increase the chlorine activation and ozone destruction significantly. In the warm winter of 2012/2013 the impact of water vapour concentration on ozone loss was small because the ozone loss was mainly NOx-induced. The results show that the simulated water vapour concentration in the tropical tropopause has a significant impact on the Arctic ozone loss and therefore needs to be well simulated in order to improve future projections of the recovery of the ozone layer.</p